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Pauline’s Game 16/04/2014

This is one in a series of computer analyses that I have made on actual games of Deal or No Deal on British television. The purpose of each analysis is to look at the real prospects of the player for the current and future rounds and to comment on the advisability of taking the Banker’s offer at each stage.

For information about the computer program and how the analysis works, please refer to article Numerical Analysis of Deal or No Deal. You can also look at article Deal or no Deal uk tv show for a description of the rules of the game, and article Deal or No Deal Box 23 for information and thoughts about this new feature of the game.

Player Profile

Pauline was a bar maid at a golf club, nearing retirement. She let on that she had big ambitions for the game, including taking her entire family for a holiday in Australia as well as getting a new kitchen installed.

Round 1 (Position at 17 box)

Pauline had a terrific start with the penny revealed in the first box and £1000 in the second box, but then things went badly wrong with £50000 and £250000 chosen.

Board

10p                     £3000
50p                     £5000
£1                      £10000
£5                      £15000
£10                     £20000
£50                     £35000
£100
£250                    £75000
£500                    £100000

Offers

Computer Prediction:  £5512
Banker’s Offer: £3000

It is not at all unusual for the banker to come up with a low offer in the first round, and that is what he has done here.

Analysis

160414_17_14.jpg

It looks probable that the next offer will be improved. We need to see how the game develops.

Round 2 (Position at 14 box)

Good. An all blue round.

Board

10p                     £3000
50p                     £5000
£1                      £10000
£5                      £15000
£10                     £20000
                        £35000
£100
                        £75000
                        £100000

Offers

Computer Prediction: £ 7227
Banker’s Offer: £6500

The banker has now offered much closer to the computer prediction

Analysis

160414_14_11.jpg

The graph shows an interesting double peak effect, but does show the chance of an offer less than £3000 is very small and there are some good peaks in £8500 to £10500 range

Round 3 (Position at 11 box)

Two large reds – the £35000 and the £15000 were taken in this round.

Board

10p                     £3000
50p                     £5000
£1                      £10000
£5
£10                     £20000


                        £75000
                        £100000

Offers

Surprisingly, in view of the boxes taken, the computer prediction has stayed nearly the same as the last round, but the banker went down a little.

Computer Prediction:  £7151
Banker’s Offer: £5000

Analysis

160414_11_8.jpg

We now have 3 distinct groups in which the offer might lie in the next round. The smallest group with 9 chances out of 165 (5.5%) is for a win of £2000 or below. Then there is a group of offers between £3000 and £6500 (about 44% of offers in this range) and finally with 50% of offers the range £8000 to £11500

Round 4 (Position at 8 box)

Board

10p
50p                     £5000
                        £10000
£5
£10                     £20000


                        £75000

Offers

The largest amount on the board (£100000) was taken and the computer prediction was in the middle of the middle block predicted by the computer in the last round.

Computer Prediction:  5000
Banker’s Offer: 3000

The Banker mentioned that he was giving a deliberately low offer here.

Analysis

160414_8_5.jpg

Looking at the computer analysis for the next round we can see why the banker has come up with this offer. 21 out of 56 (ie 37.5% of offers) will be £3500 or below, and the worst case scenario (for the banker) is a (fair) offer of around £10000.

Round 5 (Position at 5 box)

Board

50p                     £5000
                        £10000
£5
                        £20000

Offers

It didn’t go Pauline’s way, with the £75000 selected during the round.

Computer Prediction:  £3384
Banker’s Offer: £2500

Analysis

160414_5_2.jpg

Conclusion of the game

Board

50p                     £5000

Offers

Computer Prediction:  £1250
Banker’s Offer: £1275

Pauline decided to no deal and was offered the swap by the banker, and she decided to keep the box she had selected. Unfortunately it contained the 50p

Box 23

Of course Pauline decided to open box 23, and all this resulted in was getting her 50 pence back. A victory for the Banker.

Television | Computing


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