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Scott’s Game 15/04/2014

This is one in a series of computer analyses that I have made on actual games of Deal or No Deal on British television. The purpose of each analysis is to look at the real prospects of the player for the current and future rounds and to comment on the advisability of taking the Banker’s offer at each stage.

For information about the computer program and how the analysis works, please refer to article Numerical Analysis of Deal or No Deal. You can also look at article Deal or no Deal uk tv show for a description of the rules of the game, and article Deal or No Deal Box 23 for information and thoughts about this new feature of the game.

Player Profile

Scott was a landscape gardener from Cornwall who had never heard of Capability Brown much to the Banker’s amusement.

Round 1 (Position at 17 box)

Not a very good start to the game with only 1 blue and the £100000 discovered.

Board

1p                      £1000
10p                     £3000
50p
£1
£5
£10                     £20000
£50                     £35000
£100                    £50000
£250                    £75000

£750                    £250000

Offers

Computer Prediction:  £7658
Banker’s Offer: £4000

Analysis

Clearly the Banker’s offer is very harsh for this situation. The computer prediction for the next round is as follows.

150414_17_14.jpg

Seems very clear from this chart that it is worth continuing.

Round 2 (Position at 14 box)

Board

1p                      £1000
10p                     £3000
50p
£1
£5
£10                     £20000
£50                     £35000
                        £50000
£250                    £75000

Offers

Computer Prediction:  £4807
Banker’s Offer: £2000

Analysis

Scott was unfortunate to take the £250000 so now both the big amounts have gone, and the Banker has taken the opportunity to produce a really low offer – unjustifiably low according to the computer analysis.

There is a saying in Deal or No Deal “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish”. It is worth looking at the computer prediction for the next round (11 box) and the round after that (8 box) to see if things are likely to improve.

150414_14_11.jpg

Things are not likely to improve beyond £7000 in the next round, although the largest spike is at this amount. But this graph does make it clear how mean the Banker’s offer is.

150414_14_8.jpg

Looking at the above prediction for 2 rounds time, it does not look like this is going to be a big money game, but most of the action is in the £2500 to £9000 range, so it really looks worth continuing at this point

Round 3 (Position at 11 box)

Board

1p                      £1000
                        £3000
50p

£5
£10
£50                     £35000
                        £50000
£250                    £75000

We kept the largest 3 amounts, although the £20000 was taken. So there was a good degree of balance in the round.

Offers

Computer Prediction:  £5579
Banker’s Offer: £5000

Analysis

The computer prediction did not change much as a result of this balanced round, but now the Banker’s offer is much more realistic. We can now revise our prediction for 8 box

150414_11_8.jpg

There is a good spike at £8000 to £9000 and most of the rest of the action is in the £4000 to £6000 range. Let’s just look at the percent graph aswell at this stage

150414_11_8p.jpg

We can see that 85% of likely offers in the next round will be above £3500, although the computer is not predicting any offer above £9000 for the next round. Still, given an offer of £5000 it looks sensible to carry on.

Round 4 (Position at 8 box)

Board

1p
                        £3000
50p

£5
£10
                        £35000
                        £50000
                        £75000

This was an all blue round (if we count £1000 as the honorary blue). An increased offer is inevitable.

Offers

Computer Prediction:  £8677
Banker’s Offer: £8000

Analysis

150414_8_5.jpg

It is not clearcut what to do here. There are a couple of nice big spikes on the right showing potential wins of £16500 to £17500. We need to check the Percentage graph aswell.

150414_8_5p.jpg

So 50% of offers in the next round should be above £9000, and 80% of offers above £4000. And we have the big spike around £17000. Given the offer of £8000 it does look worth continuing.

Round 5 (Position at 5 box)

Board

1p
                        £3000


£5
£10


                        £75000

We took 2 of the 3 largest amounts, albeit we left the largest box untouched.

Offers

Computer Prediction:  £5371
Banker’s Offer: £4000

The banker is really playing hard ball with his offers today. All have been lower than the computer prediction and this certainly does not always happen. In the vernacular of the game, the Banker is not showing much “respect” to the player, although the reality is that he has probably assessed that this player really needs the money and so he can afford to make low offers.

Analysis

150414_5_2.jpg

With only 1 large amount remaining it is not surprising that the results are polarized. There is a 60% chance of a sub £1000 win and a 40% chance of a very good win £18000 to £22000.

Depending on your own particular financial circumstances risking £4000 for a 40% chance of £18000 to £22000 might seem like a good idea. But the Banker was correct about Scott – he did need the money, as his girlfriend pointed out to him in no uncertain terms. Without her presence in the studio I think he might have gone for it.

Scott dealt on £4000

Conclusion of the game

As it turned out, it was a good job that Scott did deal. The £75000 was revealed in the next round and the offer would have been £800.

Box 23

Box 23 was also turned down (very rarely does any player winning a red amount elect to open box 23. This was also a good move as the contents would have halved Scott’s winnings.

Television | Computing


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